TheAthletic - Homemade Codebreaker

Built a simple excel sheet that took in the previously called catcher sequence and broke them.

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PnL and Usage by QB Score



There are 2 important things to note from the chart above:

1. Breakeven point for each position. This is the score at which the average lineup with that player breaks even. For example, on average a QB will break even at 25 points. This means that in a given week, if you roster a QB who scores 25 points, you can expect to cash $0.88 (the cost of the lineup).

2. Percent used. You can see in the table to the right, QBs have the lowest percent used at their break even score (89.94%). This means that QBs are much more likely to double up at their break even score than other positions. 10.06% of the time, a lineup has 2 QBs above the break even score of 25 points.
- Note that: If an entry has a WR that scores 10 points, 90% of the time that score will be used in the entry. Even though that score has a expected value of -$0.68. It's even more wild to realize that if a WR/RB scores 6 points, that score will be used 50% of the time.

PositionBreak Even ScorePercent Used
QB2589.94%
RB1698.68%
WR1599.44%
TE1097.91%




PnL by QB ADP





PositionRound 1-5 BreakEven ScoreRound 6+ BreakEven Score
QB22.525
RB1616
WR14.515.2
TE1218

These charts are a function of positional point distribution, lineup constraints (how many of each position can go in a lineup), the cost of each player and conventional wisdom. The chart above shows the expected value of a player based on their ADP. The chart is broken down into 2 sections: Round 1-5 and Round 6+. The break even score is the score at which the average lineup with that player breaks even. For example, on average a QB drafted in rounds 1-5 will break even at 22.5 points. This means that in a given week, if you roster a QB who scores 22.5 points, you can expect to cash $0.88 (the cost of the lineup).

RB/WR have very similar break even points, regardless of where they are drafted. This is due to the quantity of WR/RB you need in your lineup. If a single late round WR scores 12 points, that score is not as valuable since its use in your lineup limits the number of high scoring WRs you can have in your lineup. (For a 12 point late round WR to be used, that would mean it is at least the 3rd highest scoring WR on your team, which makes it unlikely that your lineup cashed.)

Compare this to a onesie position (QB/TE). If a late round QB scores 22 points, that score is very valuable since it is likely your lineups top QB score of the week and close enough to the top scoring QBs to help you cash in addition to any positive correlation you have with your stack pieces and the additional value you got from punting an early position. To overcome these other factors, an early round QB would need to score 3 more points to break even.

Choose the number of stacks a lineup had.